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HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
800 PM PDT MON OCT 23 2006
Paul Moving Northward And Slowly Weakening, Should Pass Near Socorro Island Tuesday Morning.
A hurricane watch remains in effect for the southern Baja California Peninsula from Agua Blanca southward on the west coast and from La Paz southward on the east coast. A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 36 hours. Additional watches or warnings may be required later tonight or on Tuesday.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 800 pm pdt...0300z...the center of Hurricane Paul was located near latitude 17.6 north, longitude 111.7 west or about 385 miles (620 km) south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico and about 515 miles (830 km) southwest of Mazatlan, Mexico.
Paul is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/hr). A gradual turn toward the north-northeast and an increase in forward speed are expected during the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/hr) with higher gusts. Paul is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Recent microwave satellite data indicate that Paul continues to gradually lose organization and slow weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km).
Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 1100 pm PDT followed by the next complete advisory at 200 am PDT.
Forecaster: Beven
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The current projected path now suggest that Hurricane Paul will pass closer to Los Cabos than previous tracks sometime Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning. It looks like Paul could still miss the Los Cabos area with its full force, but could bring high winds and heavy rains. Hurricane precautions and tropical storm preparations should be underway.
We will be posting the latest advisory first thing in the morning.
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