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HURRICANE PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
500 PM PDT MON OCT 23 2006
Paul Moving Northward, Should Pass Near Socorro Island Late Tonight or Tuesday Morning.
A hurricane watch remains in effect for the southern Baja California Peninsula from Agua Blanca southward on the west coast and from La Paz southward on the east coast. A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 36 hours. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today or tonight.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 500 pm pdt...0000z...the center of Hurricane Paul was located near latitude 17.3 north, longitude 111.7 west or about 400 miles (645 km) south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Paul is moving toward the north at about 6 mph (10 km/hr), a gradual increase in forward speed is expected over the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/hr) with higher gusts. Paul is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Recent conventional and microwave satellite imagery indicates that Paul is gradually becoming less organized and weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km).
Estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane center at 800 pm pdt.
Forecaster: Beven
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The current projected path will bring Hurricane Paul within approximately 90 miles of Los Cabos sometime Tuesday afternoon or Wednesday morning. It looks like Paul could miss the Los Cabos area with its full force, but could still bring high winds and heavy rains. Hurricane precautions and tropical storm preparations should be underway.
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