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TROPICAL STORM PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 24 2006
Tropical Storm Watch Discontinued For Mainland Mexico.
A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Baja California from Agua Blanca southward on the west coast and from La Paz southward on the east coast. A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 800 pm pdt...0300z...the center of Tropical Storm paul was located near latitude 21.1 north, longitude 110.5 west or about 130 miles (210 km) south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico and about 300 miles (480 km) west-southwest of Mazatlan, Mexico.
Paul is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/hr). A turn toward the northeast and a decrease in forward speed is anticipated during the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/hr) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles (140 km) from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
Paul is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the extreme southern tip of Baja California, south of La Paz. Paul is also expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain over the west-central coast of Mexico from Teacapan to Mazatlan and Culiacan, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 8 to 10 inches over the higher elevations of the Sierra Madre Occidentals.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 1100 pm pdt followed by the next complete advisory at 200 am pdt.
Forecaster: Beven/Landsea
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The current projected path now suggests that Tropipcal Storm Paul will pass near (50 to 60 miles) Los Cabos sometime Wednesday late morning to early evening. It looks like Paul will be weakening and is forcast be a tropical depression when it nears Los Cabos, but could still bring high winds and heavy rains. Tropical storm preparations should be underway in the effected areas. It has been raining since about 8:00 pm, cloudy conditions and there are light and gusty winds in the Los Cabos area.
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